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How long before deniers cherry-pick the middle troposphere to claim “No warming in X years”?
2015 clearly has the warmest surface and ocean temperatures on record, for both raw and corrected data. Given the delay for the El Nino heat to spread toward the poles and up to 5 miles into the air, record temperatures for the lower troposphere are probably only months away.
Now above the troposphere, the stratosphere has been cooling, as predicted by the AGW climate models. So interpolating between the warming lower troposphere and the cooling stratosphere I expect a layer with little if any warming
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Yeah, that’s it. The middle troposphere must be pretty stable.
So to claim “No warming in X years”, how long before deniers cherry-pick data for the middle troposphere?
For the error of satellites vs thermometers see this:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Satellit...
The error bars on the satellites is over 3 times the size of the bars for the surface temps.
As for the extent of the corrections, Figure 2 (second panel) in Karl et al shows global land/ocean raw vs. adjusted: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015...
In summary, the correction are very small (UHI included), and overall the raw data for the globe shows even MORE warming than the corrected data. I have seen so estimate for the globe much different from the NOAA data: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us
Actually, Christy is using the middle troposphere already, at a Senate "hearing".
9 個解答
- Jeff MLv 75 年前最愛解答
They've been doing it since 1998. They will continue until 1998 is between in the satellite data sets. Then they will blame the warming on El Nino and ignore the underlying trend. Actually this is already happening with surface measurements. They won't be able to accept it when 2016 is the warmest in the satellite record.
- 5 年前
How long before the warmies cherry-pick the middle troposphere to claim “No warming in X years” but it doesn't matter anyway?
I wish the warmies would have a consistent story. Is it the total heat content that matters or not? If it does then the temperature everywhere matters and not just the part that they can show is warming. (I use the word "show" loosely in this context.)
To show a rising trend you should really be using the same weather stations over the whole period. Otherwise, by selecting only a small subset of the temperature time series you could always choose ones with a rise in the period of interest - even if all the series were, on average, completely flat but random.
- ?Lv 75 年前
I know for a fact that the temperature has not changed one iota outside of Earths atmosphere, ergo global warming is wrong, might as well take it to the extreme and meaningless.
- vulcan_alexLv 75 年前
How about we discuss the capabilities of any measurement system that you choose to use. They are all defective in some way. The models are also defective. So don't try to insist that we should have a carbon tax or cap and trade, or destroy coal. Now how about controlling say particulate matter especially in China and India. Or reduce trade to keep undeveloped countries from polluting more. Not to mention adaptation.
Why should we melt snow causing pollution when we could store it in ponds and allow nature to melt it.
- KanoLv 75 年前
No thanks.
We skeptics will stick with the lower troposphere, as it is the most relevant to Earths temperature.
We wont be cherry picking, if it gets warmer we accept that, if gets cooler or stays the same, we will accept that also.
Surface temperatures are unreliable, affected by UHI, huge gaps in data, homogenizing and so on.
- 匿名5 年前
How long before you get a brain?
